Thursday, June 09, 2005
oh yeah, and my computer parts are all on the fed-ex truck on route to my house. now it is a race between the fed-ex guy and work to see who gets to me first. i don't have a lot of hope for the fed-ex guy. it is nice not having to work on mornings like this though. it is like an extra day off, only i don't have to skip
there is an open casting session for Survivor this weekend in Tukwila. I hate Tukwila, but what else am I going to do this weekend? I think I would make a solid survivor contestant. lets be honest though, the chances of me dragging myself through the city down south on the weekend when I am not being paid to do so are very slim, especially since the only reason I would be going is to film a 3 minute casting video for a reality TV show. if I do, it will be an amazing feat. anything that defies my lazyness is an amazing feat to me. I haven't left the house on a weekend for anything me-related in months now, so I am seriously thinking about it just for the sake of leaving the house. imagine if I made it on the show though. I would probably scheme myself off the island within a matter of days. the game is so much less complicated than that. given the opportunity, survivors will self-destruct on their own. if you sit back and let people take themselves out of the game, you have a chance to make it far enough to take everyone by surprise. but you won't make it anywhere without friends to watch your back, otherwise you will be voted off as an afterthought. keep ahead of your lies, and let other people lie themselves off. earn just enough trust to make it to the next week, so you don't have a long string broken promises sitting on the jury at the end. and don't pull an Ian and throw it all away for a girl. if there must be a girl involved, pull a Rob and take the girl to the end with you, because if you turn on her you'll lose her (and her all-important vote) forever. keep the 'no' vote sitting next to you where it can't hurt you. maybe I'd just snap like Matt did, and sit around talking to myself all day sharpening a machete while my teamates hide on the other side of the camp. now that's entertainment.
Monday, June 06, 2005
://mariners/
There is hope. There is always hope. Because every game is an event, every single game is worth watching, there will always be hope. One game turns into two turns into 20 turns into 162. The Mariners are showing signs of life, at least. Beltre had two hits in last nights game, with an RBI and the game winning run. He had a key RBI in that spectacular 3-0 game Gil Meche threw against Toronto. He is struggling. He has struggled all year. But players won't struggle forever. If you think Adrian Beltre is going to flirt with the Mendoza line, you are a fool. Despite the record and the gaping holes in the starting rotation, the is hope still. Hope for this year even. It is so early in the season.
The schedule.
The Mariners are in 3rd place in the AL West, 8 games behind Texas. We are 1.5 games ahead of Oakland in 4th place. I mention the fact that Oakland because we play them 7 times in the next 19 games, and as the brains over at USS Mariner say, some one has to win those games. It will be interesting to watch. Oakland is really the closest thing the Mariners have to a true rival in this game. Our games are always battles, and in the end one team always makes the other team look stupid. After all, it is Oakland we are talking about (and I expect every A's fan to go into games against us optomistic saying 'it is Seattle we are talking about'). Also, both of our teams are hot at the moment. They just finished beating up on the Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as well, and they did it in more convincing fashion than we did. These next 19 games will be a test, but also provide a golden opportunity. Because besides the 7 games against Oakland, the balance of the games are interleague games against NL teams.
The AL West can be a dangerous division. Our teams relish the chance to play other teams instead of having to live through the constant intensity of facing our other division rivals. It is entirely possible that by the time the A's and the M's meet on June 20th, every team in the AL West will be over .500. It isn't very likely, but it is possible, and the thought scares me more than a little. The M's have had success in interleague games historically, marked by some amazing numbers in the 116 win season, but that season is hard to categorize, it was out of the realm of statistical measurement and into the realm of baseball mysticism. In any case, we have a chance to sneak up on a lot of teams in the next few weeks. It gives Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson to face familiar pitching after having to learn the AL from scratch this spring, and it gives our pitching staff a chance to pitch against batters who aren't familiar with them.
The team.
Richie Sexson has been solidly productive but not spectacular, and Adrian Beltre has been struggling. They are just waiting to explode individually, and in tandem. Each one has the chance to dominate a game single handedly, and together they could dominate a series. They are good players. Even when they are struggling, they are fun to watch, and they still contribute to wins. You leave them in and stick with them until the turn it around. When they finally get it together, when the superstars perform, they lift the team. They are the stuff 10 game win streaks are made of. You never know what the switch is going to be. Last night Sexson struck out twice with runners in scoring position, then destroyed his bat on the dugout steps. He went on two get hits in two RBI situations later in the game, including the game winner in the bottom of the ninth. Is that the switch Sexson needed? It could be something that simple. It could be as simple as facing familiar pitching and refinding your stroke at the plate.
In an article today, Beltre had a few quotes about Sexson, and about how he did what he needed to turn things around. With the slump Beltre is in, it would be easy to be down on yourself, and to make things worse. It was only a quote, but it was heartening to see that Beltre noticed these things, and acknowledged the fact that he is slumping yes, but he knows it could all turn around at any given moment. He also had a great quote about getting cheered when he hit his 1000th career hit in the 9th inning. He didn't know it was 1000, so he thought the fans were cheering his 2 hit game. He was wondering if people knew how long it had been since his last one. That cracked me up.
Anyways, I am not so worried about Beltre's .216 batting average in May (to explain a prior reference if you aren't a baseball person, the Mendoza line is term loosly applied to batting .200 for an entire season, which is a feat in itself since it is hard to keep a job batting .200). Good hitters can rattle off a few good games and bring that average up surprisingly fast. Look at Mark Teixera, who was hitting .260 a few weeks ago, went on a tear and raised his average 40 points to .300. or Aaron Rowand, who was hit .240 in april and is now hitting .289. Swings happen. It will be fun to watch Beltre get his swing back, because he can hit the ball hard. And when Beltre starts producing along side Sexson, runs go up on the board in the hurry. This is all without mentioning that Raul Ibanez has pushed his average above .300 with flashes of power, and Randy Winn is heating up early this season, and is pushing .300 himself. Once Ichiro starts putting up his requisite 50 hit months, my internal calculators stop functioning, which is a good thing. My love of baseball never wanes, it just has learned to surf the waves. We've got 3 more years of Ichiro/Beltre/Sexson goodness guaranteed ahead of us. If you can't get past the pitching and have lost all hope for the Mariners this season, that at least should cheer you up.
Ah, The pitching.
It is hard to look at this year's pitching staff with much enthusiasm. They were never going to win any awards. What we have now is the patched together reminants of a good team gone bad and a good system gone bad. Next season we get another chance to do it right. We will have spots open and money to spend. We have serviceable parts right now, we just need the talent to bring it all together. So, what are we going to need? Front-line starting pitching. I'd like to see us sign 2 pitchers for our starting rotation in the offseason. So, who is out there? We'll get to see what should be one of our prime targets this thursday in our game against Florida. Josh Beckett is 25, and is 7-3 so far this year with a 2.58 ERA. This guy is awesome. This is the guy who carried the mediocre yet scrappy Marlins through the playoffs in 2003, then single handedly shut down the Yankees in the World Series. He can burn through innings, give you complete game shutouts, and pitch on 3 days rest and be effective. He signed a 1 year $2.4M contract this fall, and might be available through free agency in this offseason, although the Marlins are not likely to let that happen. But the Marlins are in last place, and a losing season and questions over the Marlins future could be enough for him to walk, especially if someone comes along with big money. Someone like us.
Someone who's name has been thrown around for the past year and a half or so is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who wasn't available to post to the MLB as a free agent this last offseason, but may be available to do so this offseason. I honestly don't know. Some time in the next 2 seasons, whenever he is eligible to do so, I expect the Mariners to give him a long look, as he has the potential to dominate in America with a mid to upper 90's fastball depending on who's reports you believe and a new pitch, a pitch that is the result of his biomechanically engineered windup and release. The pitch that has been dubbed the gyroball that utilizes double spin mechanics. This pitch is great to watch, the arm action is intense, but when it is broken down in slowmo, looks surprisingly natural. it is just a motion and a wrist rotation that isn't normally associated with throwing a baseball. Anyways, I still have trouble visualizing how it all works, but here is a great piece that breaks it down link. The question mark with this guy is overuse, and elbow problems that may or may not be compounded this gyroball. I think this guy is stronger than people give him credit for. He once pitched over 250 pitches in high school, going 17 innings. I think he ended up with a perfect game, or a no hitter, or some amazing feat that warrented him staying in the game. With the Mariners successful track record using the posting system and STRONG scouting contingent across the Pacific, I believe that the Mariners will be players in the bidding for him if and when he decides to make the leap, because the potential advantages far outweigh the risks.
With two new starters on the front line combined with Felix Hernandez, who will be ready for next season if he isn't called up at the end of this season, we will have our own 3 aces. If we get Beckett and Matsuzaka, they will all be under 26, with many dominant years ahead of them, hopefully in Mariners blue. We definitely have the pitching now to fill in those 4-5 spots with other young talented pitchers like Gil Meche, Joel Piniero (if he doesn't get his ass traded), Bobby Madristch, Jorge Campillo, and Cha Sung Baek, all of whom are either in the rotation now, or could start in the number 4 or 5 spot in the rotation right now and be a moderate upgrade over Aaron Sele or Ryan Franklin. Behind them, you have a slough of other young prospects who will be pressing them hard and fighting it out for spots in the bullpen. Most importantly, we should be able to fill those 4-5 spots for cheap, which leaves us the money we need to sign the top 3 to long term deals, when the time arrives. The savings should spill over into the bullpen as our young players try to make their way on to the team.
Eventually, you have to let players go, which is why our rotation is in a bit of a quagmire right now. We could keep paying Ryan Franklin, Aaron Sele, Jeff Nelson, Ron Villone and Shigetoshi Hasegawa a few million apiece to keep pitching at a declining level, or we could pay a younger pitcher $325K to provide similar results. I am not saying ditch them all. You need proven players on any team, especially when the game is on the line. You need a veteran prescense on the field and in the clubhouse. But you don't need veterans to provide an example when you don't have any young guys on your team. We learned this point last year. Eventually, you will need to replace these players, and it is much much cheaper to develop players yourself instead of having to sign them in free agency.
Honestly, I have a bit of an alterior motive with the whole Matsuzaka signing. Something is wrong with our farm system. The attrition rate of our young pitchers is unacceptable. We need something new. New technology, new training staff, new equipment, a new mentality, I don't know what it is. Something has to give. With the Mariners strong Japanese ties, and with a dominant pitcher who is the poster child for new super-computer aided biomechanical pitching studies done in Japan based on American research, things might fall into place. It seems to work out too well, especially in the Seattle area which is on the forefront of the Biotech and Computing industries. It makes too much sense to just be wishful thinking. Something has to give. The Red Sox, the A's and many other teams are having great success with new imaging techniques to help target injuries before they happen, and provide better rehabilitation techniques when they do, Seattle has no excuse to ignore such great opportunites in a quickly advancing sports medicine field. It could vault our farm system back into contention.
well, my fingers are getting tired, so this is the end of the post.
://mariners/
There is hope. There is always hope. Because every game is an event, every single game is worth watching, there will always be hope. One game turns into two turns into 20 turns into 162. The Mariners are showing signs of life, at least. Beltre had two hits in last nights game, with an RBI and the game winning run. He had a key RBI in that spectacular 3-0 game Gil Meche threw against Toronto. He is struggling. He has struggled all year. But players won't struggle forever. If you think Adrian Beltre is going to flirt with the Mendoza line, you are a fool. Despite the record and the gaping holes in the starting rotation, the is hope still. Hope for this year even. It is so early in the season.
The schedule.
The Mariners are in 3rd place in the AL West, 8 games behind Texas. We are 1.5 games ahead of Oakland in 4th place. I mention the fact that Oakland because we play them 7 times in the next 19 games, and as the brains over at USS Mariner say, some one has to win those games. It will be interesting to watch. Oakland is really the closest thing the Mariners have to a true rival in this game. Our games are always battles, and in the end one team always makes the other team look stupid. After all, it is Oakland we are talking about (and I expect every A's fan to go into games against us optomistic saying 'it is Seattle we are talking about'). Also, both of our teams are hot at the moment. They just finished beating up on the Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as well, and they did it in more convincing fashion than we did. These next 19 games will be a test, but also provide a golden opportunity. Because besides the 7 games against Oakland, the balance of the games are interleague games against NL teams.
The AL West can be a dangerous division. Our teams relish the chance to play other teams instead of having to live through the constant intensity of facing our other division rivals. It is entirely possible that by the time the A's and the M's meet on June 20th, every team in the AL West will be over .500. It isn't very likely, but it is possible, and the thought scares me more than a little. The M's have had success in interleague games historically, marked by some amazing numbers in the 116 win season, but that season is hard to categorize, it was out of the realm of statistical measurement and into the realm of baseball mysticism. In any case, we have a chance to sneak up on a lot of teams in the next few weeks. It gives Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson to face familiar pitching after having to learn the AL from scratch this spring, and it gives our pitching staff a chance to pitch against batters who aren't familiar with them.
The team.
Richie Sexson has been solidly productive but not spectacular, and Adrian Beltre has been struggling. They are just waiting to explode individually, and in tandem. Each one has the chance to dominate a game single handedly, and together they could dominate a series. They are good players. Even when they are struggling, they are fun to watch, and they still contribute to wins. You leave them in and stick with them until the turn it around. When they finally get it together, when the superstars perform, they lift the team. They are the stuff 10 game win streaks are made of. You never know what the switch is going to be. Last night Sexson struck out twice with runners in scoring position, then destroyed his bat on the dugout steps. He went on two get hits in two RBI situations later in the game, including the game winner in the bottom of the ninth. Is that the switch Sexson needed? It could be something that simple. It could be as simple as facing familiar pitching and refinding your stroke at the plate.
In an article today, Beltre had a few quotes about Sexson, and about how he did what he needed to turn things around. With the slump Beltre is in, it would be easy to be down on yourself, and to make things worse. It was only a quote, but it was heartening to see that Beltre noticed these things, and acknowledged the fact that he is slumping yes, but he knows it could all turn around at any given moment. He also had a great quote about getting cheered when he hit his 1000th career hit in the 9th inning. He didn't know it was 1000, so he thought the fans were cheering his 2 hit game. He was wondering if people knew how long it had been since his last one. That cracked me up.
Anyways, I am not so worried about Beltre's .216 batting average in May (to explain a prior reference if you aren't a baseball person, the Mendoza line is term loosly applied to batting .200 for an entire season, which is a feat in itself since it is hard to keep a job batting .200). Good hitters can rattle off a few good games and bring that average up surprisingly fast. Look at Mark Teixera, who was hitting .260 a few weeks ago, went on a tear and raised his average 40 points to .300. or Aaron Rowand, who was hit .240 in april and is now hitting .289. Swings happen. It will be fun to watch Beltre get his swing back, because he can hit the ball hard. And when Beltre starts producing along side Sexson, runs go up on the board in the hurry. This is all without mentioning that Raul Ibanez has pushed his average above .300 with flashes of power, and Randy Winn is heating up early this season, and is pushing .300 himself. Once Ichiro starts putting up his requisite 50 hit months, my internal calculators stop functioning, which is a good thing. My love of baseball never wanes, it just has learned to surf the waves. We've got 3 more years of Ichiro/Beltre/Sexson goodness guaranteed ahead of us. If you can't get past the pitching and have lost all hope for the Mariners this season, that at least should cheer you up.
Ah, The pitching.
It is hard to look at this year's pitching staff with much enthusiasm. They were never going to win any awards. What we have now is the patched together reminants of a good team gone bad and a good system gone bad. Next season we get another chance to do it right. We will have spots open and money to spend. We have serviceable parts right now, we just need the talent to bring it all together. So, what are we going to need? Front-line starting pitching. I'd like to see us sign 2 pitchers for our starting rotation in the offseason. So, who is out there? We'll get to see what should be one of our prime targets this thursday in our game against Florida. Josh Beckett is 25, and is 7-3 so far this year with a 2.58 ERA. This guy is awesome. This is the guy who carried the mediocre yet scrappy Marlins through the playoffs in 2003, then single handedly shut down the Yankees in the World Series. He can burn through innings, give you complete game shutouts, and pitch on 3 days rest and be effective. He signed a 1 year $2.4M contract this fall, and might be available through free agency in this offseason, although the Marlins are not likely to let that happen. But the Marlins are in last place, and a losing season and questions over the Marlins future could be enough for him to walk, especially if someone comes along with big money. Someone like us.
Someone who's name has been thrown around for the past year and a half or so is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who wasn't available to post to the MLB as a free agent this last offseason, but may be available to do so this offseason. I honestly don't know. Some time in the next 2 seasons, whenever he is eligible to do so, I expect the Mariners to give him a long look, as he has the potential to dominate in America with a mid to upper 90's fastball depending on who's reports you believe and a new pitch, a pitch that is the result of his biomechanically engineered windup and release. The pitch that has been dubbed the gyroball that utilizes double spin mechanics. This pitch is great to watch, the arm action is intense, but when it is broken down in slowmo, looks surprisingly natural. it is just a motion and a wrist rotation that isn't normally associated with throwing a baseball. Anyways, I still have trouble visualizing how it all works, but here is a great piece that breaks it down link. The question mark with this guy is overuse, and elbow problems that may or may not be compounded this gyroball. I think this guy is stronger than people give him credit for. He once pitched over 250 pitches in high school, going 17 innings. I think he ended up with a perfect game, or a no hitter, or some amazing feat that warrented him staying in the game. With the Mariners successful track record using the posting system and STRONG scouting contingent across the Pacific, I believe that the Mariners will be players in the bidding for him if and when he decides to make the leap, because the potential advantages far outweigh the risks.
With two new starters on the front line combined with Felix Hernandez, who will be ready for next season if he isn't called up at the end of this season, we will have our own 3 aces. If we get Beckett and Matsuzaka, they will all be under 26, with many dominant years ahead of them, hopefully in Mariners blue. We definitely have the pitching now to fill in those 4-5 spots with other young talented pitchers like Gil Meche, Joel Piniero (if he doesn't get his ass traded), Bobby Madristch, Jorge Campillo, and Cha Sung Baek, all of whom are either in the rotation now, or could start in the number 4 or 5 spot in the rotation right now and be a moderate upgrade over Aaron Sele or Ryan Franklin. Behind them, you have a slough of other young prospects who will be pressing them hard and fighting it out for spots in the bullpen. Most importantly, we should be able to fill those 4-5 spots for cheap, which leaves us the money we need to sign the top 3 to long term deals, when the time arrives. The savings should spill over into the bullpen as our young players try to make their way on to the team.
Eventually, you have to let players go, which is why our rotation is in a bit of a quagmire right now. We could keep paying Ryan Franklin, Aaron Sele, Jeff Nelson, Ron Villone and Shigetoshi Hasegawa a few million apiece to keep pitching at a declining level, or we could pay a younger pitcher $325K to provide similar results. I am not saying ditch them all. You need proven players on any team, especially when the game is on the line. You need a veteran prescense on the field and in the clubhouse. But you don't need veterans to provide an example when you don't have any young guys on your team. We learned this point last year. Eventually, you will need to replace these players, and it is much much cheaper to develop players yourself instead of having to sign them in free agency.
Honestly, I have a bit of an alterior motive with the whole Matsuzaka signing. Something is wrong with our farm system. The attrition rate of our young pitchers is unacceptable. We need something new. New technology, new training staff, new equipment, a new mentality, I don't know what it is. Something has to give. With the Mariners strong Japanese ties, and with a dominant pitcher who is the poster child for new super-computer aided biomechanical pitching studies done in Japan based on American research, things might fall into place. It seems to work out too well, especially in the Seattle area which is on the forefront of the Biotech and Computing industries. It makes too much sense to just be wishful thinking. Something has to give. The Red Sox, the A's and many other teams are having great success with new imaging techniques to help target injuries before they happen, and provide better rehabilitation techniques when they do, Seattle has no excuse to ignore such great opportunites in a quickly advancing sports medicine field. It could vault our farm system back into contention.
well, my fingers are getting tired, so this is the end of the post.
://mariners/
